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Are we talking ourselves into a recession?

By Frank Mckenna on Jun 23, 08 11:57 AM

Last week Labour minister Tom Harris was berated by all leading political and media commentators for suggesting that UK citizens were relatively well off and should cheer up!
Generally speaking, it would be hard to disagree with him. Average wage levels have increased since 1997, living standards have improved, more people own their own homes, and we have record numbers in employment. Public services have benefited from the biggest injection of cash ever, and the country's inner cities, not least Liverpool, have been regenerated and transformed.

However, coming in the middle of higher food prices, interest rates and fuel costs, the inevitable outcry was followed by the equally inevitable groveling apology, and the minister will no doubt welcome the opportunity of disappearing back into the obscurity of his transport brief, with a flea in his ear from the luckless Gordon Brown.
But, could Harris actually have a point? Are we demonstrating a typical 'the glass is half empty' British attitude that makes an economic recession a self fulfilling prophecy?
Watching a re-run of Andrew Marr's excellent documentary series 'A History of Modern Britain', I was reminded of what a real recession feels like. Interest rates of 15 per cent! Three million unemployed (and they were only the official figures). Our inner cities were in crisis, and communities that had been built on traditional industries like manufacturing and coal were being abandoned and devastated.
There was, we were told, no such thing as society. Does today's Britain feel anything like that? It doesn't to me.
The current economic concerns began with a slow down in the housing market. But, given the massive increases we have witnessed in property prices for almost a decade, a correction in the market was bound to happen. Did anyone think that year on year rises in house values of up to 25% were sustainable?
Inflation is creeping up, but is still in low digits; unemployment is well below what we have suffered in the past; and interest rates are only in danger of increasing because 'stagflated' Brits continue to shop-till-they-drop. The month of May saw record sales achieved in the retail sector.
With an imminent change to the American presidency and the U.S. not suffering as deep a downturn as many experts expected; a promise from oil barons to increase supply; and a £50 billion injection of cash into our banking system by the Government, we still have good reasons to believe that a full blown recession can be avoided.
But, if the doom and gloom merchants continue to dominate the television news programmes and the rest of the media, we may suffer despite the positive indications to the contrary. Maybe Harris had a point after all. We should stop bloody moaning.

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1 Comments

Well said Frank. Spot on.

The problem is, the grim stuff you mention happened before - though not too much before - the www became the reference point for almost all information. So for many people it doesn't really exist....

It's good that people always seek even better and more interesting lives; but my guess is most of us (and I do understand there are some who truly do still need support, for the benefit of themselves and everyone else in a decent society) could achieve this with the resources we've already got plus a touch of ingenuity / imagination.

The future has to be sustainable, and that requires more thought and care about how we use what we already have, not just a quest for more, full stop.

Fairness to ensure everyone has what they need is essential; but so is a sense of proportion about the difficulties we currently face.

It's daft to talk up recession when we don't have to!

Best,
Hilary

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